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Sunday, May 29, 2005

California Grows-Get Me Outta Here!

The NYT in the Week in Review analyzes the problems facing California in "California Looks Ahead and Doesn't Like What it Sees". The population added 539,000 residents in 2004 and now its population tops 36.5 million. The prognosis is its population will hit 46 million by 2030. Pessimism among the electorate is rife. Population growth is most intense in the out-lying areas away from the cities. There are infrastructure repair needs that the Governator is addressing. Sacramento pits pro-growth/low tax Republicans against new tax/increased government spending Democrats.

Missing from the analysis is the elephant in the livingroom. The NYT will not mention it because it supports the Republican view. While immigration has increased the overall population in California, the failure to enact pro-growth/pro-business legislation had led to the outmigration from 1995 through 2000 of 755,000 Californians to neighboring states. The trend continues at around 100,000 per year.

These are not apples to apples people. One group, the immigrants, are largely low-skilled/low-income people. The people who are leaving own businesses or have exportable skills. If business owners stay in California they find ways for technology to replace workers. If they cannot find alternative ways to reduce labor costs, the crushing costs of workers compensation premiums, the inability to fire bad workers due to employment practices litigation, land-use restrictions for expanding businesses and factories and the overall taxation of businesses leads these firms to their only choice- to leave.

Besides missing the biggest problem (the elephant) of the state, the NYT article failed to explain why the major cities are losing population. Yes, they mention that the cities are too expensive for people to afford, but why? It is largely the building restrictions enacted and enforced by the environmentalist bullies. While the wealthy can afford to live where they want, the lack of supply of houses drives up the cost of even small bungalos (that are "worth" in excess of $1 million).

My pessimism towards the future of California is the same as my pessimism for the fate of Old Europe. In both cases the socialists have won the heart of the electorate. They promulgate the laws. They oversee every facet of business. But their programs also lead to the outmigration of the productive and creative. Their programs reward the lazy. The demographics bode ill for both.

2 Comments:

At 4:14 PM, Blogger CapitalGain said...

Lived in Tiburon for 20 years...atta there and never looked back. Socialism and liberalism KOd the state and the quality of life has plunged. Its nothing more than an "Old Europe" today.

How long Silicon Valley remains is beyond me. How can a $100,000 per year engineer or scientist with 3 kids enjoy living in a cheezy $850,000 3-bedroom Eichler cracker-box on a quarter acre, with a black and pink bathroom, avacado kitchen, shake roof, huge roof rats and a 2 hour commute to the job some 10 miles away?

 
At 11:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the Socialist-dominated legislature contemplating increased income taxes on the most productive segments of Californians, Michael Savage's prediction of the stated being entirely inhabited by illegal aliens in the near future stands a good chance of being largely right.

 

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