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Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Alito Is No Gamble

There is a market for everything, and if I had any money after buying the kids shoes and my own cable/internet bill, I'd wager on those cool bets on Tradesports. According to the market, as reported by Don Luskin, Tradesports has Alito's chances of confirmation at 78%. The online "prediction market" has chances of greater-than-50 Senate votes at 94%.

I'd bet on Alito's successful vote except I swore off all betting 27 years ago. I made bets through a bookie friend of mine and, like Pete rose, only bet for the Celtics to win. My recollection is that I had the Celts plus 3. They were winning by 2 and right at the end of the game Dave Cowens was fouled in the act of shooting. In those days they received 3 foul shots to make 2 and Cowens, an 80% free-throw shooter, missed all 3 foul shots.

I lost the bet even though the Celts won the game. I decided that I would not let my team's victory be soiled by a monetary loss.

Still, this Alito bet looks too good to pass on.

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