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Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Can Bayh Pull A Clinton?

Mike Taylor responds to Joseph Kenner's last point below:

William J. Clinton 370 electoral 44,909,889 popular vote
George H. Bush 168 electoral 39,104,545 popular vote
H. Ross Perot 0 electoral 19,742,267 popular vote

William J. Clinton 379 electoral 47,402,357 popular vote
Robert Dole 159 electoral 39,198,755 popular vote
H. Ross Perot 0 electoral 8,085,402 popular vote

If it weren't for Ross Perot, Clinton would never have stained a blue dress... well, at least not a blue dress in the Oval Office.

The chart above is the popular vote totals from '92 and '96.

In 1992 Clinton received 43.3% of the vote, Bush 41 received 37.7% and Perot got 19.0%.

Without Perot in the race, I don't think Clinton would have succeeded. Perot was drawing off conservative voters who just had their taxes raised by Geo. H. W. Bush... I can't see that over a third of those Perot voters would have gone for Clinton... no matter how hard those data are spun by Paul Begala and James Carville.

Running with the incumbency in '96, Clinton got the barest of majorities, 50%. Dole garnered 41.4%, Perot finished much worse at 8.5%.

The big myth is that Bill Clinton is a master politician... his "genius" was getting Ross Perot to run in 1992 and getting Bob Dole as an opponent in 1996...

And yes, I know that it comes down to the electoral vote.. I don't have Perot's vote count by state to see how he affected Ohio, West Virginia, Georgia, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri... all in the Clinton electoral column in 1992.

I think that Evan Bayh is certainly "polished" as you put it, but he comes from a small Midwestern state and has little to no name recognition. And, yes, that could also describe Bill Clinton in 1992... but who would be Bayh's Ross Perot?

Perhaps John McCain... if he doesn't survive the Republican primaries but feels he can appeal to a plurality of voters?

Perhaps Rudy Guiliani... certainly a proven leader with HUGE name recognition and a record to run on? ... also a Pro Choice Republican.

Such stuff as political dreams are made on.

-- Mike


At 12:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still say it's too bad Evan Bayh's father pulled titanic ted from the plane crash. (just to be clear, "titanic" is a reference to his size not to his drining skills)

At 4:34 PM, Blogger mttaylor1959 said...

You mean "The Cape Cod Orca" as Mark Levin likes to call him?

You want my take on Ted Kennedy?

I think that after you kill a woman, and avoid any responsibility for your action/inaction... you must figure you can do anything you damn well please and the Kennedy family pooper scoopers will clean up after you, no matter what you do.

At 10:54 AM, Blogger Rob said...

Sen Bayh is taking a page from the Tortise and the Hare... slow and steady wins the race...

He may not be the flashiest guy yet, or making the most waves... But he's making the rounds, raising the money and setting the foundation for next year.

12 months from now, what are all the headlines that the other guys are getting now going to do for them?

At 10:55 AM, Blogger Rob said...

btw... check out my blog at http://eamon1916.blogspot.com

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